| Transport business: A risk business |
John Smart, Director of Professional and Business Development, Institution of Highways & Transportation, discusses the recent review into the severe weather in February and considers the wider implications for the transport business
February 2009 saw the heaviest snowfall the UK has seen in 20 years. Travel was disrupted with the heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures on 1 and 2 February. According to some commentators this cost the economy half-a-billion pounds’ worth of damage. There was much written in the press at the time and since the disruption there have been three significant reviews: first from the Greater London Assembly, then from Parliament by the Transport Select Committee and the final one for the government. This article focuses on the review by the UK Roads Liaison Group at the request of government in the context of planning for the future and considers challenges now faced by the transport profession. These challenges are going to be increasingly important when faced with climate change: how to keep transport moving in adverse weather environments. And becomes part of a wider question addressed in IHT’s November event: ‘It’s a Risk Business - WRA Conference – In these changing times how do we deliver a consistent service to the travelling public?’
“We have to accept that climate change means more severe and more frequent severe weather events. There are undoubtedly lessons to be learned in order to ensure that we are as well prepared as we can be for similar conditions in the future. “We believe the key lies in collaboration between authorities, clear minimum standards and close partnership with salt suppliers. There is a lot of good practice out there and we will all gain if we share it.” It is now widely acknowledged that the world is experiencing a rapidly changing climate and this makes it more difficult for highways authorities to predict conditions from year to year. Winter service planning needs to take account of the increased frequency and intensity of severe events, as this is a consequence of climate change. There is an interesting case study in the report on ‘Derbyshire, Leicestershire and Nottinghamshire County Councils - Climate Change Adaptation Plan - The impact of climate change on their highway networks has been considered by the three counties and four adaptation responses identified for immediate or longer term actions’. For winter service the responses are: risk assessment surveys to establish which routes have the highest risk of ice formation, re-assess and re-classify priority routes based on future climate change predictions, review resources for winter service provision and consider if changes need to be made, and provide a more flexible and responsive winter service. Predicting the future Accurate long-range forecasts would be a useful tool to help highway authorities predict salt usage and for salt suppliers to arrange appropriate supplies. However, given that in reality such forecasts are not sufficiently reliable, relating salt stock prediction to long range weather forecasting is too high risk. On the other hand, reliance on medium term weather forecasting, although giving good indication of needs for salting, does not provide a sufficiently long time for highway authorities to order and take deliveries of any significantly larger quantities of salt than normal, or for suppliers to significantly increase supplies. Weather forecasting cannot therefore be reliably used as the main determinant for salt stocks either at the start of the season or when re-ordering, although it may be a relevant consideration. This article has focused on the review from government – ‘Lessons from the Severe Weather February 2009’. The report highlights 19 recommendations that should be considered as a whole by all parties involved and it is now the task for the Minister to review these recommendations. The implications from the severe weather in February to the transport system raise a wider question: are we now in a riskier business? Financial meltdown, climate change, regular flooding and heavy snow, these are all recent problems that have affected operational and reputational risk. Managers of our highways have to reassess their thinking on how they manage their networks more effectively including the change of emphasis on the use of road space, whilst still maintaining a safe and reliable service for the travelling public. This article has touched on the relevance from the review into the Lessons from the Severe Weather 2009 to risk in a broad sense – but has drawn out challenges and solutions with particular focus on operational and environmental risk. Financial risks are important too – the review notes that costs of any new arrangements can only be determined at a local level and will need to be considered against service resilience and value for money criteria. The cost of investment must be weighted against the financial risk if the movement of people and goods is again disrupted. There are user risks too and to reduce these many highway authorities provide information to the public before the winter season so that any winter service arrangements, especially salting routes, are well understood by users and the community. Some highway authorities also issue information leaflets with advice on travelling during severe winter weather conditions. The four elements of operational, environmental, financial, and user risk are topics that the WRA-UK Congress 2009 will consider. IHT invites you to come and hear how senior staff from all four overseeing organisations, a range of first class UK and overseas speakers, experts in their field, see these risks emerging and, more importantly, managed. For more information IHT/WRA UK Congress Conference – It’s a Risk Business. In these changing times how do we deliver a consistent service the travelling public? takes place 5 November at Copthorne Hotel, Birmingham. Please see www.iht.org for more information. |
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